Fed Pivot Less Likely After Strong NFP, Focus on CPI Report and Dot Plot

The euro is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1116 at the time of writing, down 0.60% on the day. There are no tier-1 events on today’s data calendar but Thursday will be busy, with German CPI and US GDP. German CPI expected to ease Germany, the largest economy […]

Data have to turn quickly negative for the March gathering to become live Market assigns only 30% chance for a March move; April rate cut is a done deal January concludes with preliminary PMIs and the January 25 ECB meeting Despite the upside surprise at the December inflation report, the market remains convinced that the […]

Key insights from the week that was. Australian Q4 GDP printed broadly as expected, rising 0.2% (1.5%yr). Once again, consumer spending was in the spotlight, up just 0.1% in Q4 following a –0.2% decline in Q3 (revised down from zero) to be broadly unchanged versus end-2022. The picture is much weaker when one considers population […]