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Part I: A New Toolkit to Predict Soft-Landings, Stagflation and Recessions Summary In this first part of a series of reports, we introduce a new toolkit to predict the probability of soft-landing, stagflation and recessionary episodes. Bernanke (2024) reviewed the Bank of England’s forecasting process for monetary policymaking, concentrating on the Bank’s forecasting and decision-making […]

The post Soft-Landing, or No Soft-Landing, That is the Question: Part I appeared first on Action Forex.

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09/12/2023

Fed Preview: Low-Key Optimism

Fed Preview: Low-Key Optimism We do not anticipate the Fed to make changes to its monetary policy in the December meeting, in line with broad consensus and market expectations. Focus will be on the updated economic projections, where the 2024 ‘dot’ could be revised slightly lower, yet still above market pricing. Growth forecasts could be […]
12/03/2024

UK’s Slowing Wage Growth Drop Crumbs to BoE’s Doves

The British Pound is losing ground against the US Dollar for the second day in a row as pressure mounts on fresh UK employment data. Data for February showed a rise in Claimant Count by 16.8K – the biggest since April last year. Overall, a moderate growth trend has now been in charge for a […]
17/01/2024

UK Inflation Unexpectedly Rebounds

Yesterday was just another day where another policymaker pushed back on the exaggerated rate cut expectations. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Christopher Waller said that the Fed should go ‘methodically and carefully’ to hit the 2% inflation target, which according to him is ‘within striking distance’, but ‘with economic activity and labour markets in good shape’ he […]