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In focus today From the US, Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for August is due for release. The preliminary survey from the University of Michigan that was released earlier showed consumers turning increasingly optimistic about the future, but also more worried about the current economic situation. We expect the Central Bank of Hungary to keep […]

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03/07/2024

Preview of RBNZ: Keeping It Tight

We expect the RBNZ to leave the OCR at 5.5%. We expect a short statement as with the April Review. The RBNZ will emphasise the upside risks to consumer spending and inflation emanating from the less contractionary than expected Budget 2024. But they will balance this with some dovish messages associated with potential downside risks […]
18/12/2023

Gold: A Further Deterioration in US 10-year Treasury Yield May Support a Bullish Tone

An increase in dovish expectations on a rapid pace of Fed funds rate cuts projected for 2024 indicates a potential impending recession. An uptick in recession risk may see a further deterioration in the US 10-year Treasury real yield which reduces the opportunity costs for holding Spot Gold (XAU/USD). Spot Gold (XAU/USD) has managed to […]
10/09/2024

US: Small Business Optimism Pulls Back in August

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.5 points to 91.2 in August, coming in below market expectations calling for a flat print. Eight of the ten subcomponents fell on the month, while only two improved. Large declines were recorded in expectations regarding higher real sales (-9 points to -18%), earnings trends (-7 points to -37%) […]