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Markets After last week’s Fed decision, investors were happy to use soft/disappointing data to push money market pricing for ever more aggressive font-loading on Fed and ECB interest rate cuts. Fed members and even more ECB policy makers for now kept a balanced communication mostly favoring a gradual approach. Still markets now see a > […]

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28/11/2024

NZDUSD: Temporary Bounce Rather Than Return to Growth

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.25%, bringing the total number of cuts in this cycle to 125. The move was in line with average market forecasts, although it represents a higher rate of normalisation than the G10 club of major developed market currencies. […]
10/12/2024

The Best Defense is a Good Offense

Sentiment in Chinese equities reversed suddenly to a significantly more bullish state after the Politburo – which is the highest-decision making bodies within the Communist Party – pledged to embrace a ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy in 2025. This is a meaningful dovish shift from the ‘prudent’ stance of the past 14 years, hinting that further […]
17/12/2024

Dollar Index Outlook: Prolonged High Fed Rates Expected to Boost Dollar

The dollar index firmed in early Tuesday trading and pressuring the peaks of recovery leg from 105.37 (Dec 6 low). Although last Fri/Mon action was shaped in Doji candles and signaled indecision, this was likely a consolidation before recovery resumes. Fresh bulls probe through cracked Fibo barrier at 106.71 (50% retracement of 108.04/105.37 pullback) with […]