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Markets The US yield curve finished last week with a little steepening. Net daily changes varied between -0.2 bps (2-yr) to +5.2 bps (30-yr), underpinned by second-tier data including decelerating and slightly below-consensus September PPIs. October consumer confidence (U. of Michigan) missed the bar as well. The headline index fell to 68.9 from 70.1 with […]

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Dollar Index With Strong Support at 101.80 -102

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Gold Might Take Another Bullish Shot

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26/06/2024

USDCAD Wave Analysis

USDCAD reversed from key support level 1.3620 Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3700 USDCAD currency pair today reversed up with the long-legged Doji from the key support level 1.3620 (which has been steadily reversing the price from the start of May, as you can see below). The support level 1.3620 was strengthened by the […]
08/08/2024

Soft-Landing, or No Soft-Landing, That is the Question: Part I

Part I: A New Toolkit to Predict Soft-Landings, Stagflation and Recessions Summary In this first part of a series of reports, we introduce a new toolkit to predict the probability of soft-landing, stagflation and recessionary episodes. Bernanke (2024) reviewed the Bank of England’s forecasting process for monetary policymaking, concentrating on the Bank’s forecasting and decision-making […]
25/10/2024

Weak PMIs Keep ECB Jumbo Cut Speculation Alive

In focus today and over the weekend Today, focus turns to the German Ifo growth indicator for October. The Ifo survey is more extensive than the PMIs and it will be very interesting to see if it mirrors the recent uptick observed in the PMIs yesterday. In the euro area, September data on credit growth […]