China’s Data Remains Weak, But There Are Signs of a Turnaround

In focus today The first week of January will be concluded with the December Jobs Report at 14:30 CET, and ISM services index at 16:00 CET. Recent data (Claims/ADP/JOLTs) has generally supported the narrative of robust US labour market conditions in December, and we forecast non-farm payrolls at +170k and average hourly earnings growth at […]

Business confidence has continued to rise. However, there remains limited momentum in activity, and ongoing inflation pressures. Key results (December 2023) Business confidence: 33.2 (Prev: 30.8) Expectations for own trading activity: 29.3 (Prev: 26.3) Activity – same month one year ago -4.2 (Prev: -12.5) Inflation expectations: 4.61% (Prev: 4.79%) Pricing intentions: 50.2 (Prev: 46.8) The […]

A weak Yen is aiding the Bank of Japan’s inflation objective for now by dislodging the deflationary mindset. But homegrown inflation needs further wage increases and investment. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised rates at its March meeting. Since then, the Yen has held above USD/JPY150, a level traditionally regarded as a trigger for intervention. […]