Risks Significantly Tilting to First Fed Rate Cut in September at Earliest

WTI oil price continues to trend higher and hit five-month high on Tuesday, probing above $85.00 barrier for the first time since late October. The last bull-leg extends into fourth consecutive day, underpinned by brightening demand outlook on firmer than expected China’s and US economic data, as well as drop in OPEC oil production in […]

Part III: A New Toolkit To Predict Soft-Landings, Stagflation and Recessions Summary In the third installment of this series, we introduce a probit framework to generate four-quarter-out probabilities of three scenarios: recession, stagflation and soft-landing. Instead of relying on one regression with one set of predictors, we create several regressions with different sets of predictors […]

USDJPY remains within a two-week range and consolidating just under multi-year peaks at 151.90/152.00 zone (tops of Oct 2022 / Nov 2023 / March 2024). Extended sideways mode (the pair is on track to end the second consecutive week in a tight Doji candle) reflects strong indecision, as the dollar remains supported by a wide […]