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Key themes: US equities finished lower, pulling back from a rally that briefly drove the Dow Jones to a record high. A number of hawkish Fed speakers suggested that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates. This saw US bond yields increase. The US dollar also advanced. The Aussie finished lower. The larger […]

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02/05/2024

May FOMC: Stalling in Inflation Leaves FOMC Stalling for Time

Summary As was widely expected, the FOMC left the fed funds target range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% at the conclusion of its May meeting. It was evident, however, that the Committee believes inflation’s return to its 2% objective likely has a somewhat longer and uncertain journey ahead. In the post-meeting statement, the Committee noted that “in […]
15/02/2024

GBPUSD Edges Down as UK Slips into Mild Recession

GBPUSD holds above key support trendline despite disappointing UK GDP data Short-term trend deteriorates, but confirmation needed below 1.2500 GBPUSD remained squeezed between the 1.2563 resistance and the key support trendline from the 2022 record low in the four-hour chart despite the UK economy falling into a mild technical recession in Q4 2023. The market […]
30/05/2024

LT Yields Continue Recent Reacceleration

Markets LT yields yesterday continued recent reacceleration. This tells at least as much on current market momentum as on the news that served as an explanation. Regional German May inflation published throughout the day were soft (0.1% M/M). At 0.2% M/M HICP inflation also decelerated markedly (0.6% in April), but due to base effects, Y/Y […]