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Markets Today’s eco calendar was light compared to earlier this week but that didn’t prevent a further sell-off on core bond markets. April US durable goods orders were stronger than expected, but March figures face a downward revision. Core shipments, input for GDP (investments), increased by 0.4% M/M following a 0.3% decline in March (earlier […]

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The Weekly Bottom Line: FOMC Continues to Preach Patience

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07/02/2024

German Factories Orders Get Boost from Major Airplane Orders

In focus today The Polish central bank announces its base rate at 14.30. We expect them to maintain their current rate level of 5.75%. Early Thursday morning, Chinese CPI and PPI for January is released, and set to show another deflation print on the headline and thus continue the downbeat news flow out of China. […]
26/04/2024

Worst of Both Worlds: Are the Risks of Stagflation Elevated? Part II

Part II: A Brief Review of Past Episodes of Stagflation Summary In the first installment of this series, we presented a simple framework to characterize stagflation and identified 13 instances in the United States since 1950. Episodes vary in severity, but each posed unique challenges to monetary policymakers. In this second report, we briefly review […]
15/04/2024

UK Inflation Report Could Shift Market’s Focus Away from Geopolitics

BoE’s determination could be tested if this week’s CPI prints surprise on the upside Pound could benefit from a strong set of data this week Employment data will be released on Tuesday; the inflation report on Wednesday Inflation in the spotlight At the last Bank of England meeting, which is still relatively fresh in the […]