AUDCAD Rebounds from Near Key Uptrend Line

Part V: The FOMC, Blue Chip or the New Framework: Predicting the Fed Funds Rate Summary This installment presents a new framework to predict the level of the fed funds rate two quarters out. We compare our framework’s fed funds forecast with the FOMC and Blue Chip forecasts to decide who is more accurate at […]

There is a classic risk aversion in the markets, reminiscent of what we saw some 16 years ago in 2008. The sell-off in U.S. markets does not look extreme yet, although Japanese markets are recording their worst day since Black Monday 1987, and trading has been suspended in Korea, Turkey and Taiwan. The spike in […]

Summary The January CPI data came in hotter than expected and did little to give the FOMC the “greater confidence” it needs to start imminently cutting rates. Gasoline prices declined for the fourth month in a row, but an outsized jump in energy services and food prices tempered any enthusiasm from the decline in fuel […]