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Last week ended on a very positive note for the US equity markets. All major indices rallied, the S&P500 notched its best week in more than a year and toped the 6000 level for the first time in history. The Dow Jones traded past the 44’000 level for the first time as well, while Nasdaq […]

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02/05/2024

Worst of Both Worlds: Are the Risks of Stagflation Elevated? Part III

Part III: Where Is Stagflation Headed from Here? Summary In the first installment of this series, we presented a simple framework to characterize stagflation and identified 13 instances in the United States since 1950. We briefly summarized past episodes of stagflation in the second installment. In this final report, we consider the risk of stagflation […]
08/04/2024

SPX 500: Fed Dovish Pivot Narrative is at Risk

Higher oil prices have led to higher inflationary expectations in the US via the breakeven rates. Recent rise in inflationary expectations coupled with recent “less dovish” Fed Speak from Fed officials Kashkari, and Bostic has revived the “higher for longer” interest rates environment. Higher commodities prices led by oil may see an uptick in US […]
05/06/2024

Oil Consolidates Near Critical Support – BoC to Announce First Rate Cut

Shocker! The exit polls were completely wrong in predicting the outcome of the Indian election. Not only that Narendra Modi’s BJP couldn’t secure a landslide victory in the latest elections – as it was suggested by Monday’s polls, but it couldn’t even win enough seats to secure a majority in the parliament. Its focus on […]