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The OCR looks set to end 2025 at 3.25% – lower than previously thought. We continue to see a 50bp cut in February but now think it will be followed up with 25bp cuts in April and May 2025. GDP printed sharply lower in Q2 and Q3 2024 – falling a cumulative 2.1%. The RBNZ […]

The post RBNZ OCR Change of Call: Weak GDP Implies a Lower Trough in the OCR appeared first on Action Forex.

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13/12/2024

RBA’s Big Pivot and Head Fakes Ahead

The RBA’s language change this week revealed a change in thinking driven by shifts in the data. But some data surprises might just be head fakes. Something happened between 28 November and 9 December to shift the RBA’s thinking. The first of these dates marked a speech by Governor Bullock that can only be described […]
05/04/2024

Cliff Notes: Marking Time

Key insights from the week that was. Beginning in Australia, the RBA March Minutes revealed important developments in the considerations for, and operational framework around, monetary policy. On the former, it appears the RBA Board did not discuss the case for a rate hike in March, focusing solely on the case to remain on hold. […]
05/01/2024

USD/JPY Technical: Countertrend USD Rebound Remains Intact Ahead of US NFP

The US dollar is the top performer against the JPY on a 5-day rolling basis (+3%). A monthly US NFP jobs gain of between +240K to +260K may ignite another bout of US dollar rally. Bullish momentum is supporting a potential extension of the ongoing countertrend rebound in USD/JPY. Watch the next intermediate resistance at […]