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Markets The ECB kept its key policy rates unchanged today in an unanimous decision. In its policy statement, the central bank repeats that it doesn’t pre-commit to a particular rate path. They follow a meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction. Unlike at the April meeting, there’s no clear […]

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15/07/2024

Dollar Losing Interest Rate Support at Stealth Pace

Markets The US dollar is losing interest rate support at stealth pace. Since the awful June service ISM (July 3), the US 2-yr yield fell from 4.75% to 4.45% currently. The US 10-yr yield slid from 4.45% to 4.2%, testing the downside of the downward trend channel. Decent payrolls failed to save the day while […]
15/08/2024

US CPI Backs Fed Rate Cut Expectations

It’s been two weeks since I left, and in that time, the markets plunged into chaos. Now that I’m back, things have finally returned to calm waters. Quick thoughts on the August meltdown The fact that the Japanese yen saw a heavy post-Bank of Japan (BoJ) reaction is of course due to the accumulation of […]
07/03/2024

USD/JPY Outlook: Japanese Yen Accelerates Dains vs Dollar on Growing Signals of BoJ Policy Shift

Bears accelerate on Thursday (USDJPY was down 1% in Asian / European session) extending steep fall into third straight day. Fresh weakness broke below initial Fibo support at 148.37 (23.6% of 140.25/150.88 rally, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen) generating initial reversal signal and warning of deeper drop. Bears cracked 100DMA (147.81) which produced some headwinds, with […]