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Markets Data dependency = volatility. Today was a textbook example. The US economic agenda featured September CPI figures and the weekly jobless claims. The former came in at the topside of expectations with headline and core coming in at 0.2% and 0.3% m/m respectively, beating the consensus view by 0.1 ppt each. The yearly print […]

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21/08/2024

Soft-Landing, or No Soft-Landing, That Is the Question: Part III

Part III: A New Toolkit To Predict Soft-Landings, Stagflation and Recessions Summary In the third installment of this series, we introduce a probit framework to generate four-quarter-out probabilities of three scenarios: recession, stagflation and soft-landing. Instead of relying on one regression with one set of predictors, we create several regressions with different sets of predictors […]
21/03/2024

AUDUSD Advances Sharply in the FOMC Aftermath

AUDUSD was in a steady retreat since early March But finds feet and reclaims both SMAs after dovish FOMC Momentum indicators improve drastically AUDUSD had been losing ground since the beginning of March, dropping below its descending 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). However, the pair managed to pause its retreat and reverse back higher with […]
30/11/2023

WTI Oil Futures in a Fierce Battle With 200-day SMA

WTI futures fall to a 4-month low before attempting a recovery  But their rebound is being held down by the 200-day SMA  Momentum indicators suggest that positive momentum is picking up WTI oil futures (January delivery) have been on the retreat since their October peak of 89.85, breaking aggressively below historical support zones. Although the price managed to find its feet […]