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Markets In the run-up to tonight’s US elections there’s little appetite for markets to make additional big directional moves. If anything, US Treasuries and the dollar underperform. Positioning over the recent month, the Trump-trade, unveils a final market skew towards a Republican victory despite basically every prediction model showing it’s an extremely close call. Below […]

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12/07/2024

The Two Wolves of Monetary Policy

The ‘two wolves’ inside monetary policy are demand shocks and supply shocks. It is important to know which is which. There is a story in Native American folklore that inside each of us are two wolves, one evil, one good. The one that wins – the one you become – goes the saying, is the […]
04/12/2023

EUR/USD Holds Support But Can It Increase Again?

Key Highlights EUR/USD rallied toward 1.1020 before it corrected lower. A major bullish trend line is forming with support near 1.0880 on the 4-hour chart. GBP/USD is consolidating gains above the 1.2650 level. Gold prices surged higher above $2,100 and $2,120. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The Euro started a strong increase above the 1.0820 resistance against […]
06/11/2024

NZ First Impressions: Labour Market Data, September Quarter 2024

The unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in the September quarter, a smaller than expected rise due to more young people exiting the labour force. Wage growth is moderating broadly as expected. Unemployment rate: 4.8% (prev: 4.6%, Westpac f/c: 5.0%, RBNZ f/c 5.0%) Employment change (quarterly): -0.5% (prev: +0.2%, Westpac f/c: -0.6%, RBNZ f/c -0.4%) Labour costs […]