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Markets A looming US government shutdown starting as soon as tonight is capturing market and media attention. Policymakers had agreed on a bipartisan deal to fund spending through March 24. Enter Trump and Musk. Both urged Republicans to kill the deal, a.o. because it didn’t raise the debt ceiling. Trump otherwise has to address the […]

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07/03/2024

Research China – A Long and Painful Transition

China continues to struggle with a housing crisis that shows no signs of turning three years into the crisis. We expect it to weigh on the economy again this year. However, the overall economy continues to muddle through with the help of stimulus and industrial policy. In 2024 we look for growth to moderate from […]
03/12/2024

French Politics Beat the Common Currency Down

Markets EUR/USD was among the worst cross rate performers yesterday. The currency pair dropped as low as 1.046, down from 1.058 at the open. French politics beat the common currency down after PM Barnier forced through part 1 of the budget using article 49.3 through which he circumvented parliament. Both the left and the right […]
21/05/2024

Canada: Inflation Cools Further in April

Headline CPI inflation edged lower in April to 2.7% year-on-year (y/y), matching expectations. The broad-based deceleration was led by food prices, services and durable goods. However, higher prices at the pump in April worked against the cooling in inflation. Gasoline prices were up 6.1% versus a year ago, up from 4.5% in March. But it […]