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Markets The Japanese Cabinet Office downgraded its growth assessment for the first time since November in today’s monthly report. Weakness in private consumption and production are to blame. The economic recovery is likely to remain tepid after unexpectedly slipping in recession in H2 2023. The first downgrade of production in almost a year comes as […]

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03/01/2024

Gold Begins 2024 on a Weak Note

Gold has a cautious start to the new year Technical signals weaken but need confirmation Gold opened the new year with mild losses after its bullish attempts to close above the May 2023 bar of 2,079 proved fruitless in the last week of December. The price is currently trading muted slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci […]
23/07/2024

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Another empty daily calendar left investors to their own devices with central bank meetings in Hungary (-25 bps to 6.75%, as expected) and Turkey (unchanged at 50%, cfr. infra) offering some distraction in non-core areas. That resulted in core bonds gaining ground after three days of losses. German Bunds outperformed US Treasuries this time […]
16/08/2024

Skating to Where the Puck Used to Be

Data revisions have partly undercut the RBA’s narrative of lower aggregate supply than expected. The RBA will need to skate to where the labour market is going to go, not where it used to be. Recent events have not materially changed our view about the outlook for the Australian economy. Recent communication from the RBA […]