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Markets The EMU economy came close to stabilizing in March with price pressures easing. The composite PMI recovered slightly more than hoped, from 49.2 to 49.9 (vs 49.7 consensus), matching the best (least bad) outcome since June of last year. Divergence between a weak export-oriented manufacturing sector (45.7 from 46.5) and a recovering domestic services […]

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Cliff Notes: Four Sets of Circumstances, One Intent

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08/06/2024

Fed Set to Hold Rates as Inflation and Other Indicators Show Mixed Signals

Wednesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be in focus after the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank cut rates the week before. The Fed is not expected to follow suit—at least not right now. We expect U.S. CPI growth numbers out in the morning before the […]
15/08/2024

US CPI Backs Fed Rate Cut Expectations

It’s been two weeks since I left, and in that time, the markets plunged into chaos. Now that I’m back, things have finally returned to calm waters. Quick thoughts on the August meltdown The fact that the Japanese yen saw a heavy post-Bank of Japan (BoJ) reaction is of course due to the accumulation of […]
20/08/2024

Dollar on the Edge

The US dollar has fallen to its lowest levels of the year, losing more than 2.3% from its August peak and around 4% since early July as expectations of a Fed rate cut in September began to be priced in. The dollar index has retreated to 101.7, reflecting growing expectations of Fed easing. Although the […]