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Markets Eurostat today published deficit and debt data for the years 2020-2023 in E(M)U). The euro area government deficit declined marginally from 3.7% of GDP in 2022 to 3.6% in 2023. The government debt to GDP ratio decreased over the same period from 90.8% to 88.6%. Zooming in on Belgium, Eurostat reported an increase of […]

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03/08/2024

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: The Downside Risks to the Employment Mandate Are Real Now

Summary United States: “The Downside Risks to the Employment Mandate Are Real Now” We have just concluded what will become a historic week. The July employment report brought with it a crossing of the Sahm Rule threshold. That means we’re either headed for recession, or about to break yet another recession rule this unique cycle. […]
11/04/2024

Markets Trim Fed Rate Cut Expectations Amid High US CPI

In focus today Today’s focus will be the ECB meeting where we expect no change in the policy rate. We anticipate that the primary insight from the meeting will be a confirmation of the current ECB narrative, thereby indicating that the ECB is on track to deliver a rate cut in June. While this meeting […]
11/09/2024

US: Higher Shelter Costs Drive Unexpected Gain in Core Inflation in August 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) in August, bang-on the consensus forecast. On a twelve-month basis, CPI fell to 2.5% (from 2.9% in July). Energy prices (-0.8% m/m) were a drag on headline inflation, with both energy commodities and energy services lower on month. Food prices remained largely subdued, rising 0.1% m/m […]