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We were already expecting loose US fiscal policy and higher interest rates across the curve on average than pre-pandemic. This week’s US election results push our view further in that direction. It is the nature of event risk that, when it is finally realised, it closes off some potential futures and narrows down the remaining […]

The post The Red Fork in the Road appeared first on Action Forex.

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Cliff Notes: An Event-Filled Week

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07/12/2023

USDJPY’s 2023 Performance is Positive

USDJPY remains above uptrend line Bearish correction may be on the cards RSI and stochastic indicate negative move USDJPY has been in ascending movement since the beginning of 2023, but now is creating the fourth consecutive red week after the pullback off the 13-month high of 151.90. Technically, the bulls might still be in the […]
06/11/2024

Trump Trade in Full Swing

We’re on the cusp of the US election results. They’re starting to trickle in, pointing toward a more favourable outcome for the Republicans and Donald Trump. As a result, the so-called ‘Trump trade’ is in full swing this morning. The US yields are pushing higher on expectation of further debt ballooning under a Donald Trump […]
31/01/2024

Risk is Fed Powell Doesn’t Want to Sound Too Hawkish

Markets The EU economy avoided a recession in 2023H2 (0.0% q/q growth in Q4) thanks to southern Europe while inflation readings from Spain (and Belgium) showed price pressures reaccelerating. The latter pushed euro area yields higher, with changes in Germany amounting to 2.6-3.8 bps across the curve. Consumer confidence in the US (Conference Board), meanwhile, […]