US Dollar Index Needs to Hold Above 104

WTI oil futures step on 84.69 once again, hold near recent highs Technical indicators show some weakness, but trend signals are positive WTI oil futures kept their footing on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September-December downtrend at 84.69 on Wednesday and closed the day with mild gains at 86.24 after news that Iran may […]

The dollar index keeps positive tone in holiday-thinned Monday’s trading and attempting again through pivotal Fibo barrier at 102.27 (50% retracement of 104.27/100.29 bear-leg), where the action failed several times recently. Sustained break here to improve near-term picture and shift focus to the upside for potential attack at key barriers at 102.74/84 (recent range top […]

Part I: A New Toolkit to Predict Soft-Landings, Stagflation and Recessions Summary In this first part of a series of reports, we introduce a new toolkit to predict the probability of soft-landing, stagflation and recessionary episodes. Bernanke (2024) reviewed the Bank of England’s forecasting process for monetary policymaking, concentrating on the Bank’s forecasting and decision-making […]