WTI Crude Oil Price Shows Bullish Trend Ahead of OPEC Meeting

Issues in the home-building sector are still boosting goods inflation in Australia. This week RBA Head of Economic Analysis Marion Kohler gave a speech on the economic outlook. Normally an RBA speech so soon after the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy will be designed to reinforce the messages in that publication, rather than […]

Key insights from the week that was. In Australia, the Q1 CPI printed 1.0% (3.6%yr) for headline inflation and 1.0% (4.0%yr) for underlying trimmed mean inflation, meaningfully higher than consensus and likely the RBA’s view too, based on our assessment of its June 2024 forecast (3.3%yr headline, 3.6%yr trimmed mean). The latest update is consistent […]

We expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25bp in the next week’s meeting. Markets price in around 40% probability of a larger 50bp move. We do not expect changes to the pace of QT despite the Fed now initiating rate cuts. We expect the updated dots to signal a total of 3x25bp cuts […]